The Value of Symbian

Discussion in 'Symbian' started by Antoine Wright, Feb 20, 2011.

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  1. Antoine Wright

    Antoine Wright Neighborhood Mobilist Super Moderator

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    If there is one thing that we know, its that even platforms that are dead keep a notable userbase for a little while before completely folding. So to answer the question about the value of Symbian, see this post by Horace Dediu (and for context, see his previous post):

    For a help, here's one of the graphs he's posted.
    [​IMG]

    This isn't PalmOS Classic, and Nokia will have a lot more to transform than they announced. And yet, there's literally a few hundred million folks who do well for a software or service solution until they feel like upgrading. For developers (and users) to miss on that apparent value is indeed self-inflicted suicide.
     
  2. Drillbit

    Drillbit Mobile Deity

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    Yes I agree. This is self inflicted suicide.
     
  3. Varjak

    Varjak Mobile Deity

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    I think you're being VERY optimistic. Drop-off can be VERY quick. The simple announcement that Symbian is being abandoned is a powerful disincentive. Comparing it to Palm OS is incorrect too. Most people felt that there would be some avenue to moving from Palm OS to its successor somewhat seamlessly. That turned out to be false; but it kept some people hanging for a long time.
     
  4. Antoine Wright

    Antoine Wright Neighborhood Mobilist Super Moderator

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    Had my reasons for the comparison to Palm; will let it play out. Remember the statements towards Symbian updates brining it in line with what users will expect from Nokia's Windows Phone offerings... letting this play out.

    I agree that I'm being optimistic considering the drop off, I'm also aware that counting out what's already in Nokia's distribution chain doesn't make sense (without more information of those levels and sell-thru rates across all of their applicable regions)... and Nokia falling, but not completely in the pits awareness levels.
     
  5. SyncRaven

    SyncRaven Mobile Deity

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    I would be interested in hearing you thoughts on Palm for sure since personally I think Palm still has more staying power than Symbian considering Palm devices are largely pre convergence and there are tons of users that are happily keeping Palm devices powered for organization even if they have another phone. (and I would know since I sell refurbished palm devices and the buying market is still strong).
    It's a shame though that Nokia gave up on Symbian - it never got a fair reception in the US.
     
  6. LandSurveyor

    LandSurveyor LandSurveyor

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    With that many current users, I wonder what sort of plan Nokia has in place to get current users shifted onto the new OS.
    Another way of putting that is : how inexpensive are Nokia WP7 devices going to get? I say this because I don't really see a problem at the higher end.

    As for the comparison to Palm devices, I don't see how they can be directly compared since Palm made so many unconnected PDAs and Nokia largely concentrated on phone-centric devices.
     
  7. Antoine Wright

    Antoine Wright Neighborhood Mobilist Super Moderator

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    I believe i am paraphrasng Elop's mention of it by saying this: 50% of devices solid by Nokia did not come via carrier contracts. All of these devices, despite being "tied" to telephony services, left it to the user to find the service that worked for them (cellular is an option, no count on how many devices used without carrier connectivity for any amount of time, though this usage pattern has been observed and recorded in areas where Nokia is/has been the primary brand of computing device). "Phone centric" matters because?

    I would wager that comparing Nokia's Symbian numbers with PalmOS Classic's numbers would also show the vast difference in installed base. An example stat pulled from 2005 news, Palm sold less than 2 million devices as a company in this report, Nokia *still* sells that many in less than a week: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/04/04/palmsource_q3_fy2005/
     
  8. LandSurveyor

    LandSurveyor LandSurveyor

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    People tend to change phones over relatively short periods of time. Sometimes for good reasons, sometimes at a whim. In my case, every phone I've ever replaced except for one, was still working well.

    Palm users tend to hang onto their non-phone devices for a long time. I guess just because they can. I believe Psion users were once the same. Don't know if WM users were/are as "loyal."


    At least, that was my reasoning. :)
     
  9. Antoine Wright

    Antoine Wright Neighborhood Mobilist Super Moderator

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    I wonder, how large is the refurbished market for PalmOS devices? What's the max addressable number of users (similar to the graph in the original post)?
     
  10. Varjak

    Varjak Mobile Deity

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    Exactly. I'm an example of that.

    Furthermore, as someone else commented, people turnover their phones more often these days; and it's relatively easy to cross platforms.
     
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