Analyst Predicts Android Will Outsell iPhone, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile by 2012

Ed Hardy · 10-08-2009, 12:03 PM

Google's Android OS is still getting off the ground, but an analyst for the market-research firm Gartner predicts that two years from now it will have a larger share of the world market than almost all of its rivals.

Analyst Ken Dulaney believes that Symbian will maintain its lead in this market, but won't dominate quite as much as it does now. Gartner estimates it will have around a 40% share.

Android will jump up to second with roughly 75 million units in 2010, for about 15% of the market. This is definitely a bullish prediction, as this OS is currently in sixth place. However, Dulaney thinks that backing from Google and the array of companies bringing out Android-based smartphones will prove a successful combination.

The Rest of the Pack
In Gartner's prediction for 2012, all of the top mobile platforms but Symbian will be running neck-and-neck

Right behind Android will be Apple's iPhone with a 14% share of the world market. then Windows Mobile with 13%, and then the BlackBerry OS just a tiny bit behind.

On contrast to his optimism about Android, Dulaney is pessimistic about RIM's BlackBerry platform, predicting it will drop from second place to fifth place.

This market-analysis firm also doesn't see Palm's webOS becoming a significant force in the market. It's prediction is for a 2% share in 2012.

Source: Gartner via Computerworld

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harpgliss · 10-08-2009, 12:41 PM

Hi,

Would not be surprising.

With the marketing and the size of Google, sounds possible.

Lots can change things in two years though.

David

Antoine Wright · 10-08-2009, 12:57 PM

While I'm fairly certain that Android will increase, I'm not sure (yet) that it will be that much. The more realistic bet is actually that RIM would become #2 within 12-24 months, with Apple and Android having a pissing contest for #3.

It will be a half decade before Symbian falters to a point that its not larger than the size (combined) of #s 3-7 on that list. That being said, by that point, they should be well positioned to stay at the top of the stack unless Android goes further downmarket - that is a network issue more than a manufactuers and marketing one.

zap2 · 10-08-2009, 01:10 PM

Android seem to be really picking up, although I'd like to see some Nokia E71/BlackBerry style devices.

AS far as where each OS will be, I think pretending to know is a bit silly. What if Windows Mobile 7 is a huge hit? What is Symbian as an open platform really drops the ball? What if Maemo works wonderfully? If Palm can't make it? Or the iPhone OS starts to make mistakes?(or what if the reverse of those statements happen)

We just don't know...

r0k · 10-08-2009, 02:12 PM

I can understand why they predict the demise of BB OS with its Java implementation. However, as of a month or two ago RIM was the fastest growing company in the world. For Android to supplant RIM for corporate users, google has to do some things differently. No business user will rely on a solution that is unsupported. Many of google's cloud apps are unsupported and come with either email or no support whatsoever. Google will have to adopt a face to face customer service market to push aside companies who know how to "touch" customers like RIM and Apple.

I see the potential for dramatic growth for Android, but this guy sounds a lot like that Palm exec who they predicted the launch of Pre would submarine iPhone sales. It didn't happen. Not because webOS doesn't have merits but because of momentum and inertia in Apple's favor. RIM, while it's OS is clunky and not easily extensible, is not easily swept aside either. Since becoming a BB user, I've experienced something I never enjoyed before: updates to my OS. This is something iPhone, BB OS, Windows Mobile, Maemo and web OS all share. They are all being updated in the field. So what's so special about Android? Is it intrinsically better? A lot cheaper? These are the kinds of differentiators Android needs to trounce all these other devices.

Google is huge, but so is Microsoft and I don't see predictions that WinMo will rule the world. If there were Android devices available from every major carrier today and if they were selling well, then this guy could raise his hand and say this sort of stuff. Right now this "Android kicks butt" prediction strikes me as more of a case of premature speculation than any sort of thoughtful analysis.

neuron · 10-08-2009, 03:59 PM

significant role for 2% share? Are we talking about desktop OS?

I tried Palm Pre, and I have not seen any light that this phone will gain any significant shares for Palm. In order to survive, WebOS must be much better than IPHONE, and it is still not as good as iphone so far.

Antoine Wright · 10-08-2009, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neuron

significant role for 2% share? Are we talking about desktop OS?

I tried Palm Pre, and I have not seen any light that this phone will gain any significant shares for Palm. In order to survive, WebOS must be much better than IPHONE, and it is still not as good as iphone so far.

Mobile OSes have a much larger user base, even in the single digits of marketshare, than PC OSes do (on average).

Consider also, smartphone platforms - those within this article - comprimise 13-23% of the 4 billion+ folks that use mobile devices. So, that would be 800 million(-ish) devices across 6 major and about 30 minor platforms. 2% of that 800million is one thing, 13% is another, especially where ARPU is still a suitable metric for carriers.

Varjak · 10-08-2009, 05:42 PM

I have big doubts about this. I don't see Android being that successful. However, it, like WinMo, may be on the WIDEST variety of phones.

JRakes · 10-08-2009, 06:47 PM

As a basic, "out of the box" phone OS, I have no idea. For users interested in actually doing things, however, a big factor that went unmentioned (unless I completely overlooked it) is the availability of apps.

I know I have a different approach to my mobile device than the "typical" user, but the availability of useful apps* is what drove my recent decision to go with WinMob. Again, I realize I'm out of the mainstream, but how anybody gets anything done without well developed, robust apps is beyond me. For plain old yakking and messaging, I just can't see the OS making a big difference. In that regard, it will simply be who can provide an OS for the lowest price - A commodities market.

OTOH, if there's a huge push on the app development side...

*Silly things such as a Twitter plugin, tip calculator, call logger, or mileage tracker don't count as a significant app, IMHO. I'm bright enough to figure out a tip, any car I'd be driving has a sufficiently advanced electronic system to track mileage, and browsing through social networking sites, while utterly useless to me, is a given for any OS nowadays. Call logging is a given on a phone, as well, AFAIK, and if I had an unlimited plan, why would I care? Just my opinions, of course...

Drillbit · 10-09-2009, 01:59 AM

Yup pretty much in agreement with everyone. Its calling it too early.

Also just because you are in the widest variety of devices didn't guarantee market share. Like that helped Windows Mobile (not!) Furthermore, it is also leading to fragmentation, like every 2nd generation Android phone has its own unique UI, even the Huawei T-Mobile Pulse.

There is a counter to openness, variety and multivendorship. That's branding, so far Apple, RIM, and Nokia has been supergood at. Never underestimate the sheer power of branding, #branding, @branding and branding.com.

To its favor, Android does a decent looking app store that looks better now with 1.6, with over 10,000 apps. Windows Mobile marketplace debuted with only 246. The best app stores I've seen on a hand held device has been Apple, RIM's, Android and Sony PSP.

Ace in the hole is what happens East. When Huawei, MTK and ZTE chipsets make whitebox smartphones cheap. Cheap because you got smartphones for around $200-$300 retail with no contract, making it possible for carriers to shift back to privately branded smartphones at ever competitive costs. For OS, they're going to run on customizing open source OS on that, whether its Android, or another mobile Linux such as Limo. Whiteboxing has literally taken over the appliances market, pushing the brand names aside, indicating that branding itself is not invulnerable to cheap competition.

Look to the Huawei made T-Mobile Pulse as the market prototype for the mobile market to come in the next decade.