Will palmOne Become Another Apple?

[Ed Hardy]

At times, the comparisons between palmOne and Apple are almost startling. So Brighthand's Ed Hardy wants to know, will palmOne and eventually end up where Apple is now?

Read more at http://www.brighthand.com/article/An...pple?site=Palm

[ktdan1]

I think you hit the nail on the head here.

Of course, to do this it will have to convince millions of people that the Treo is a better option than RIM's BlackBerry or the new crop of Windows Mobile devices that will emphasize mobile email.

One last bit. Palm will have to maintain the Cool factor that Mac has done or it will die off. How good you look with a Palm -vs- PPC or Rim will be just as important.

[sojourner753]

Lets also not forget the fact that Palm too has turned to grandfather Unix and its chldren to save their butts.

[Ed Hardy]

Originally posted by sojourner753
Lets also not forget the fact that Palm too has turned to grandfather Unix and its chldren to save their butts.

There were a couple of comparisons I could have made. For example, the first Macs and the first Palms both ran on almost identical processors.

However, I was trying to make a point, not drown people in details, so I deliberately left some things out of the editorial.

Still, if there's any other comparisons that people can think of, feel free to post them here.

p.s. I thought about mentioning the Linux connection, but that was really a decision made by PalmSource, not palmOne.

[dorelse]

Yep, I'd agree on most points.

I think a couple very important differences though are the fact that PalmOne is dependent on PalmSource these days, which isn't making money.

The danger there is if PalmSource dies, so does PalmOne. (Or it gets rolled back into PalmOne.) Apple never had that issue, as it always controlled both.

The other important thing (if it turns out to be true) is PalmOne's supposed Treo for PPC's. If that should come to pass, and it is indeed a Treo PPC (Dell PPC Phone perhaps?), then PalmOne has effectively insulated itself should any one side fail. Apple never built a Intel PC to run Windows on should the Apple OS side fail.

My concern isn't with PalmOne (if the Treo PPC is true), it lies with PalmSource losing their main revenue source.

A Treo running Magneto would be a great device!

[BlazeOptimus]

This is a little bit more in the possible outcomes department, but the idea of the push e-mail becoming a predominant part of smart phones would seem to lend itself toward Microsoft. Microsoft's most powerful tool is its integration of its existing and future products. If the next version of Pocket PC OS includes this push e-mail feature, and Microsoft Exchange is already as prevelant as it is, then why buy a blackberry, much less a Palm(at least on the coporate side)? This will escpecially hold true if Dell gets into the smartphone arena(I know they wont have the prettiest or sleakest smartphone, but they'll probably have the cheapest). Its kind of reminds me of the Word Perfect saga that ended with Microsoft Office on top. The way PalmOne is currently operating, I cant see a positive future for it. And if it boils down to a must have App, Microsoft will win by including the critical features of that app in its next round of software (while PalmOne will seem to try to battle Creative and Apple with Palm OS powered Media players????). Microsoft may trail at first, but they always seem to pull out in front in the end.

Here's to hoping that PalmOne can pull a magic rabbit out of its hat.

[AlanG]

I think a couple very important differences though are the fact that PalmOne is dependent on PalmSource these days, which isn't making money.

I have to disagree. palmOne is *not* dependant on PalmSource, and I don't think that PalmSource is in any immediate danger. Here's why.

palmOne has alreay gone on record stating that they are not locked in to any specific handheld operating system. This means that palmOne could be (in my opinion should be) at least looking at Windows Mobile. palmOne has already licensed Microsoft's ActiveSync technology to allow their latest crop of handhelds to synchronize data with Microsoft Exchange servers. If palmOne where to launch a series of handhelds that ran Windows Mobile, their approach of looking at a target market and developing solutions for that market has the potential to be very profitable. IT managers who are reluctant to stray from Microsoft solutions would no longer have a reason to automatically pass up on palmOne solutions.

As for PalmSource, their acquision of China Mobile Soft will go along way to ensuring that they will not have to depend on handheld OEMs like palmOne. The real money to be made is in feature phones (ie: camera phones like the ones most people have now) and smartphones. That is a much bigger market than handhelds, and PalmSource now has access to alot of cell phone OEMs and wireless carriers overseas. Once PalmSource irons things out over there, they will be well positioned to make a move here in the US. Then there's the Palm OS for Linux project. That will allow OEMs to cook up all kids of cool new devices.

So, while sales of tradional, non-connected devices is slowing down (by the way, palmOne sold 1.7M Tungsten Es in the last 17 months or so), I don't believe that either company is in danger of going out of business any time soon.

[Timothy Rapson]

Microsoft has never ever had a successful original product. Not one.
But, they are great at leveraging their MS DOS psuedo monopoly into an almost limitless pile of cash. That cash is then used exclusively to protect that OS cash cow.
Whether PalmOne become Apple or Netscape, or WordPerfect, or Lotus is up to them, but from the first day that PalmOne tried to sell the Audrey they sealed their fate of losing their dominant profitable leading place in the world of information technology.
If I were running PalmOne or Palmsource I would be looking at the Apple model of only selling at the top end in low numbers so as not to truly threaten MS-DOS. Only then will Microsoft leave them to their niche. Maybe they could make extra money on a side product or two as Apple does with the iPod.
The most sensible think PalmOne and PalmSource could do is close up shop right now and take what money they have to Disneyland or something. That is what Psion did once MS tilted at it for daring to go after the phone and notebook market that MS decided it needed to take over (also to protect that cash cow.) I wonder if Palm will do that?

[wshwe]

Palmone won't go belly up, but will tread water for the forseeable future. They have been outfoxed by Microsoft, Nokia, Apple and RIM. Apple knows how to appeal to the mass market, P1 doesn't.

[AlanG]

Maybe they could make extra money on a side product or two as Apple does with the iPod.

It will be interesting to see what palmOne does with the Tungsten X (aka Life Drive). The T|X, I suspect, will be postioned more as a mobile entertainment device than a personal orgainizer (but it will still run all of the existing great Palm OS software). After seeing the battery life improving technology the palmOne has put into the Tungsten E2, I think that the T|X is going to be a solid performer - both in terms of its capabilities and sales for palmOne.

Alan G