Brighthand's Predictions for 2004

Ed Hardy · 01-01-2004, 08:11 AM

Brighthand's Editor-in-Chief gets out his crystal ball and tries to peer into the future of the handheld market.

Read more at www.brighthand.com/article/Predictions_for_2004

Timothy Rapson · 01-01-2004, 09:11 AM

(Before I forget--typo in paragraph 2 OS should be OS "6")

And regarding OS 5 and OS 6 I see Palm has missed a big BIG opportunity to staunch the flow of market share to PPC. If they had made OS 5 simply a Linux implementation with a Palm OS 4 emulator, they could have gotten up to full speed for all the features the OS needed (real file system, multimedia, standard APIs for sound, video, and add ons) for virutally nothing.

Of course, this would have cost them their proprietary jewell--complete control of future OS profits. Their protective ploy will not get them the profits they hope for anyway. By the end of 2004 Linux and the Linux phones will have everything any OS 6 PDA will have and they will sell for far less.

Regarding the other predictions, I sure don't see 2003 as the year BlueTooth was validated. In fact, it may go down as the year BlueTooth tanked. Certainly the majority of PDAs and even phones are without BlueTooth. WiFi and Cell and IRDA connections do absolutely anything that BlueTooth can do. I just don't see bothering with it.

I sure hope that sales are up in 2004. I have lots of money set aside for new PDA stuff, but so far I just don't see the model I want. Palm has produced in 2003 three of the 4 best models they have ever made. They are this >< close to what I want. A Zire 71 with virtual grafitti and 64 meg. A dual slotted T3. Or even a TE with virtual grafitti that I could team with a pocketable digital camera. Those would get my money. The HP 2210 has a nearly perfect hardware design. The HP 1935 for $175 or even $150 at one point, is such a hardware value I would feel like I was stealing from the manufacturer if I got one (I won't -- doesn't have Palm OS).

Someone at PDA Geek said yesterday that they would like to see a Zodiac phone model with an internal hard drive. Now that sort of creativity could ignite some sales. I have waited forever for a PDA to offer 1 gig of storage for less than $100. This is the storage value range that would get me to start using my PDA for music and video.

Will 2004 be the year of the PDA? I wish I could say it will be, but I really don't think it will.

robrecht · 01-01-2004, 10:51 AM

Thanks, Ed. Happy New Year, everyone!

Now for the stupid question:

Do I really need/want multitasking/multithreading if it's going to cause so many problems? What are the real practical benefits in a handheld?

'Cause it seems to me that a handheld is not a desktop. If I want some heavy crunching from my handheld, I must want it as fast as possible. I don't to wait even longer while I pretend some other task (MP3?) is just as important to me in the meantime.[/stupid question]

Ed Hardy · 01-01-2004, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Timothy Rapson
I sure don't see 2003 as the year BlueTooth was validated. In fact, it may go down as the year BlueTooth tanked. Certainly the majority of PDAs and even phones are without BlueTooth.

Let's take a look at how many handhelds have been released this year with it built in. From palmOne there's the Tungsten T2 and T3. From HP we have the iPAQ h1945, h2215, h4155, h4355, h5155, and h5555. Sony released the Clie UX50, UX40, TG50, and NZ90. Even ASUS has put out the A620BT, Tapwave has the Zodiac1 and Zodiac2, and Sony Ericsson makes the P900. All of these models have Bluetooth, and I'm sure there's a few I missed. I can't think of a single high-end model that came out in the second half of the year that didn't have Bluetooth.

Until now, there has been a "chicken and egg" problem with Bluetooth. No one wanted to make Bluetooth peripherals because there weren't enough Bluetooth-enabled handhelds. And no one wanted to make a Bluetooth-enabled handheld because there weren't any peripherals. Well, no more. There are now a ton of Bluetooth-enabled handhelds and I expect to see many more Bluetooth peripherals over the course of 2004.

Ed Hardy · 01-01-2004, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by robrecht
Do I really need/want multitasking/multithreading if it's going to cause so many problems? What are the real practical benefits in a handheld?

I notice the lack every time I am checking my email. On my Pocket PC, it's really nice to be able to request my mail and go off and do something else while it downloads. On my Palm, I have to sit there and wait while this happens. Dowloading a Web page in the background would be nice, too.

Timothy Rapson · 01-01-2004, 01:23 PM

I miss multi-tasking when adding addresses on my old Ipaq. On the Ipaq I could get the name from a list, drop it partially or the whole thing (another amazing this about PPC was that it could find the street, name, city and all automatically entering it into the right field. I have no idea how.) into the address book and not have to close and reopen the application finding where I was time and again.

Most Palm apps will take you right back to where you were when you left, but address book is one that doesn't.

I see the many bluetooth models at the high end, but how much of a percentage of the market is now in these $300+ models? And how many people are actually using BlueTooth? Practically the only use I see made of it is phone connections. Intel & Co promised camera, commerce, Internet, file exchange, address exchange, and so much more. By the time I get two PDAs connected and exchanging addressses, I could probably have entered all the info myself.......I guess all these arguments have already been made. I certainly expected a keyboard by now. BlueTooth should have been connecting at least keyboards by now.

I suppose another strong argument in favor of BlueTooth's advance is that no product that did have it was replaced with one that didn't (to save money and complexity). Personally, I would have much preferred that we never "added" the super new SD/MMC over CF, BlueTooth over WiFi/IRDA, new proprietary connectors over standard USB, or a lot of the stuff we are being pushed into over the past three or four years. But, whether we should have all the new "features" is a different question from where the are getting and will continue to get them. We are getting the BlueTooth models. We sure are not getting the uses for them yet and I am still not convinced that we will in 2004.

imported_orol · 01-01-2004, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Ed
I notice the lack every time I am checking my email. On my Pocket PC, it's really nice to be able to request my mail and go off and do something else while it downloads. On my Palm, I have to sit there and wait while this happens. Dowloading a Web page in the background would be nice, too.

exactly the same thing I encountered for the first time I installed wifi card into my TRG pro back then. and I experience it als now with my trusty UX50. multitasking isn't much a problem unless you are connected in a way ..

ayqueloco · 01-01-2004, 08:51 PM

While we're on the subject of predictions...

when is Verizon going to get with the program and put out a decent bluetooth phone?

NickC · 01-02-2004, 05:16 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Timothy Rapson
IAnd how many people are actually using BlueTooth? Practically the only use I see made of it is phone connections. Intel & Co promised camera, commerce, Internet, file exchange, address exchange, and so much more.

Surely the point is that the phone connection is the most important. It's through this that I get my email and Internet access when away from a WiFi connection. With a Palm I could also compose and receive SMS messages and dial straight from the address book (when is M$ going to catch-up?). It's certainly vastly better than trying to line up IR ports when on the move.

Timothy Rapson · 01-02-2004, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by NickC
Surely the point is that the phone connection is the most important. It's through this that I get my email and Internet access when away from a WiFi connection. With a Palm I could also compose and receive SMS messages and dial straight from the address book (when is M$ going to catch-up?). It's certainly vastly better than trying to line up IR ports when on the move.

Yes, I agree. The phone connection is not only the most important, it is about the only connection now used by BlueTooth. Where are the keyboards? Cash registers? Cameras (OK, some pathetic Concord now offers BlueTooth-but no Sony, Cannon, or Minolta that I know of.)

And, phones like the Sony P800 and Motorola 200 are coming for everyman prices this year.

I think the PDA phone BlueTooth thing is way cool. I mean, you can be practically anywhere in the world and have a gig of you info with you on your phone and access to your Email and the whole WWW instantly. That is Star Trek cool. But, I don't think this is really all that BlueTooth promised.