And in the end ...

[Konrad Pierce]

So the idea is to march off to your local AT&T (or whomever), shell out $650 and sign a 3-year contract, and walk away with your shiny new iPhone.

Then what? I mean ... after the 3 years are over?

Certainly by then your original battery will be quite venerable. Of course you've been good and only had the unit serviced by Apple's people, since you wouldn't want to tamper with or violate your service contract.

I've even heard many people say that their now-ancient 4GB/8GB iPODs are starting to fail ... presumably from heavy wear-and-tear and general old age affecting the EEPROM flash chips. I can't say that's true, but assuming at least some of their complaints have merit it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect something similar from an iPhone.

Anyhow ... let's pretend it's now about the summer of 2010. Your contract expires and you now have an inactive, "locked" iPhone that - if you're lucky - will at least let you still operate it as a non-wifi/non-phone but very pretty PDA. Perhaps almost comparable to whatever else the PDAs of 2010 might offer.

What then? Do you buy the "new" iPhone-II and start paying every month for years all over again? In the hopes that - at best - you'll get to exchange your current model for a measley few hundred bucks rebate when you trade up for the next installment of your iMortgage?

This might be a very long term plan indeed on Apple's part.

[berylrb]

well, yeah!

... isn't that the end game of all tech companies, to only support legacy products for so long and then force upgrades either through hype or must have features. I'm thinking desktop for instance, I can't even imagine getting by on only 16 MB of VRAM, yet that's what my tried and true Pismo had up until this year when I finally said, "OK BRB time to get with the program, and see what this YouTube is all about" ... LOL

Or, how about the battery in my old Pismo. I was doing fine with 3-4 hours of .doc and .xls time, and then I started doing BH like once an hour with a totally wifi 802.11g Airport system, because, you know, it's not hip to be wired today, and WHAMO, my good battery barely ticks off 1.5 hours, the original didn't even make it past 30 minutes one day.

So what's going to happen when it aint's cool to have G-wifi and N-is what my neighbor has? Shoot in 2010 the really good stuff on YouTube will need 1Gig of VRAM, LOL!

... in the end, I just gotta keep up, man! A Brave New World, or Resistance is futile ...

[Ed Hardy]

...and sign a 3-year contract.

AT&T will probably let you sign a three-year contract, but it only requires a two-year agreement to get an iPhone.

That's still a long time for a mobile device to last, but I'll bet AT&T will be happy to let you upgrade to an iPhone 2 next year. All you'll have to do is sign another two-year contract.

[r0k]

Apple isn't the only drug dealer on this corner. Right across from the guy selling iPhone iCrack is a guy selling Treo and Foleo and down the way there is a guy selling Symbian flavored crack. All the big companies want us to keep coming back. The reason Apple has made such a huge splash is that they have proven with their ipod line that they can keep people coming back. Palm has already lost its grip on countless former palm device owners. How much attrition is there from iPods to Sansa's and such? Some, but it's negligible compared to the losses at Palm.

I expect iPhone 2 will do quite well. And it won't be warmed over iPhone 1 in a different color. It will offer some measurable benefit. Sometimes it seems that if Apple was throttling the release of technology the way M$, Palm and so many other tech companies do, iPod's would just now be moving from 78 rpm to 33 1/3 rpm vinyl playback capability. There are many illustrations of this. WM6 finally supports 320 x 320. Woohoo. It's 2007 already. Palm has not yet released a wifi Treo. Ditto on the year comment. Then there's the feature ooze in the Treo line. 650: nvfs with Garnet. 700: a little more nvfs with Garnet. 755: lose the antenna bulge but keep garnet. At this rate we won't see wifi and a new os until the Treo 7500 arrives mid century.

Thank God for Apple shaking things up. And if they can get some repeat business out of the deal, if they continue their current track record it won't be due to bullying. It will be for new products that add value.

[Konrad Pierce]

So ...

You pay up front, then you pay every month.

You get an excellent gizmo, and for a little "boost" in your payments every few years, you get to always have it upgraded. And of course you get phone (and maybe wifi) service as well.

My observation is just that you can do all that without shackling yourself to a very specific device, a very specific cell provider, and a long-term service plan, plus (because of the inevitable incentives) you start again every few years.
I like having the choice of which PDA/phone device I get to use, not to mention the freedom of changing it to another device at any time of my choosing. I like having the choice of which cell provider I can go with, because what's good in one area isn't always good somewhere else. I like being able to switch carriers or plans, because no matter what you sign up for now, it'll surely be considered a rip-off compared to the options and rates you could get next year.

It seems to me that doing the iPhone thing takes all that away. It's apparently a very good device and you could do a lot worse - but you could also do a whole lot better.

Once down the path of the iPhone you begin, forever will it consume your destiny.

[Konrad Pierce]

I expect iPhone 2 will do quite well. And it won't be warmed over iPhone 1 in a different color.

lmao over here

We're talking Steve Jobs, man! Master of Showmanship!

The damned thing will be available in any designer colour you want, from Strawberry and Blueberry to Charcoal and Dusty Rose.

Nonetheless, I did read your post and got the point, r0k.

[jigwashere]

Didn't you get the memo? The iPhone, Treo, or whatever will completely change your life. You will become much more productive and your earning power will increase substantially, making it easy for you to upgrade your device every year or two. It's really no big deal when you're making so much money....

[himpressive]

Apple isn't the only drug dealer on this corner. Right across from the guy selling iPhone iCrack is a guy selling Treo and Foleo and down the way there is a guy selling Symbian flavored crack. All the big companies want us to keep coming back. The reason Apple has made such a huge splash is that they have proven with their ipod line that they can keep people coming back. Palm has already lost its grip on countless former palm device owners. How much attrition is there from iPods to Sansa's and such? Some, but it's negligible compared to the losses at Palm.

I expect iPhone 2 will do quite well. And it won't be warmed over iPhone 1 in a different color. It will offer some measurable benefit. Sometimes it seems that if Apple was throttling the release of technology the way M$, Palm and so many other tech companies do, iPod's would just now be moving from 78 rpm to 33 1/3 rpm vinyl playback capability. There are many illustrations of this. WM6 finally supports 320 x 320. Woohoo. It's 2007 already. Palm has not yet released a wifi Treo. Ditto on the year comment. Then there's the feature ooze in the Treo line. 650: nvfs with Garnet. 700: a little more nvfs with Garnet. 755: lose the antenna bulge but keep garnet. At this rate we won't see wifi and a new os until the Treo 7500 arrives mid century.

Thank God for Apple shaking things up. And if they can get some repeat business out of the deal, if they continue their current track record it won't be due to bullying. It will be for new products that add value.

Thanks r0k; you have quite succinctly captured the Apple ethos of product evolution, that should put many other manufactures to shame! I had a very dim and skeptical opinion of apple and their products until last year November, when I was finally wowed into getting a 24" imac G5 (I'm so looooving it ). I was in business with a friend of mine, and we had purchased the then "top of the range" 20" imac for our design work a few months earlier. The sweet thing is, I paid just about £100 more for a much better specced computer than we paid a few months earlier for the "old" new model (Larger HD, 2gb RAM instead of 512mb RAM and 4" extra screen real estate, built-in i-sight).

That is what Apple does, they always give you a compelling reason to upgrade, and make you feel real good about it. With apple you do not need to be bullied; like my legal friends will put it, it will be a case of: "Res ipsa loquitor" - The object speaks for itself!

I am not particularly enamored by the specs of the iphone (yet). But if Apple's track record is anything to go by, I can bet that the next iteration of iphone will really rock many now nay-sayers off the wall and onto the iphone wagon. Apple will make an upgrade choice a no-brainer when the time comes: bigger hard-drives, more useful apps, and the addition of features you never even thought you'd need, plus the possibility that the ever resourceful modding / hacking / software developing community would have made some strides into making it a more "configurable" piece of equipment And guess what? It is likely to come at a cheaper price than what the current lesser specced models are being sold for! (especially now that the whole world knows the crazy profit margin they are currently making on each iphone )

I am waiting and watching. For many people, all it will take to make the iphone a better or "must-have" gizmo is the imminent software update (Remember the T3, T5 and Lifedrive?). I have a very sneaky feeling that Apple has got an ace tucked up somewhere up their sleeves, and the stock market seems to think that too. I just hope I wont have to wait too long ...

[PalmOSFan]

The initial concerns expressed by Konrad are applicable to ANY wireless company and ANY wireless phone. Personally, I thought it was refreshing to buy an iPhone off the shelf, activate it myself, and be done with it. It took 5 minutes. I've had 3 different Treos the last 3 years --- how long do people really keep their phone, pda, computer, or whatever?? I've had my 650 for two years and plan on keeping it until it dies, but I'm still taking the iPhone for a spin. The last time I checked, it doesn't really matter what phone you buy, if you want service, a contract is usually involved with the carrier you purchase service with. If you are paranoid about a contract, then by all means, buy pre-paid or pay full price for your phone without the service commitment. Frankly, I've never understood why someone would want to switch carriers as frequently as they change their phone. If iPhone had only been available through Sprint or Verizon, I would envy those folks, but I wouldn't break my contract to get it. I don't think too many people hang on to their phone for very long. How many brick phones from 1988 do you see people using?? I bet the average life-span for someone using their current device is 2 years, tops.

[berylrb]

... That is what Apple does, they always give you a compelling reason to upgrade, and make you feel real good about it. With apple you do not need to be bullied; like my legal friends will put it, it will be a case of: "Res ipsa loquitor" - The object speaks for itself! ...

PERFECT!

that says it all himpressive! you should send this phrase to Apple it would make a great t-shirt

"(apple logo) the object speaks for itself!"<on the back>
"res ipsa loquitor"<on the front>

just send me an iphone for my suggestion!