Can Nokia Win the Smartphone War? Discussion

[Dragan Petric]

Nokia has been the king of the world handset market for almost as long as anyone can remember, but recently its crown has begun to slip. In his latest column, our European correspondent Dragan Petric discusses whether Nokia's deal with Microsoft can put it back on its throne.

Read the full content of this Article: Can Nokia Win the Smartphone War?

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[Drillbit]

Nokia doesn't have what it takes to be a successful OEM, which is what it amounted if you're going to make Windows or Android handsets. Much less "win" a war.

If you are an OEM, you are a follower. To be a successful follower, you have to be first, a fast follower, and second, an innovative follower that improves on the core thing you are following.

That perfectly describes Samsung, LG, HTC, and to a degree, Motorola.

That doesn't describe Nokia. Nokia has been more of an inhouse highly integrated design thing like Apple or Blackberry, where everything from top to bottom has to be their own design. That's their distinction. That's their DNA.

Being a fast follower is not their DNA.

Being a fast follower has to be these things:

A culture that accepts very lean margins. Fits HTC. Again, doesn't fit Nokia.

A manufacturing organization that is geographically close to a huge pool of cheap but well trained labor. Again, that fits HTC. Not Nokia.

A manufacturing organization that is geographically close to an abundance of component manufacturers --- LCDs, fabs, and so on. Again, that fits HTC. Not Nokia.

And it fits Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, Pantech and incoming guys like Huawei and ZTE. Not Nokia.

It doesn't fit Motorola too, but Motorola has such an early penetration in China, that like GM, its like a dual company that has both deep roots in China and the US. (Do note LG recently overtook Motorola in smartphones last quarter, ZTE and Sony Ericsson is right behind Motorola).

[Antoine Wright]

In Nokia's history, every time they moved to a new industry, analysts always asked a question like the one posed in the title of this article...

[LandSurveyor]

We'll see once they get some devices out there.

I'm interested to see that Europeans find WP7 so compelling. My slight acquaintance with it so far has been favorable. If they can get past the OS's growing pains, like Android did, I think they will do OK.

[Drillbit]

We'll see once they get some devices out there.

I'm interested to see that Europeans find WP7 so compelling. My slight acquaintance with it so far has been favorable. If they can get past the OS's growing pains, like Android did, I think they will do OK.

I've never seen any evidence to suggest Europeans find it compelling. Last quarter according to Gartner, only 1.6 million Windows Phones are sold around the world. And yet, 2 million Windows Mobile are still sold around the world and 3.5 million Samsung Bada.

The best selling phone in the UK right now is the Samsung Galaxy SII by the way.

[Drillbit]

In Nokia's history, every time they moved to a new industry, analysts always asked a question like the one posed in the title of this article...

Doesn't mean they will succeed all the time. Unless its a non tech company.

Nokia has been heralded in Europe as an exception in a tech-electronic world full of American and Asian brand names. For some reason, Europe has not been able to produce an Apple, a Google, a Microsoft, even a Samsung or Sony. Why? Are there structural, infrastructure and cultural reasons?

[LandSurveyor]

Doesn't mean they will succeed all the time. Unless its a non tech company.

Nokia has been heralded in Europe as an exception in a tech-electronic world full of American and Asian brand names. For some reason, Europe has not been able to produce an Apple, a Google, a Microsoft, even a Samsung or Sony. Why? Are there structural, infrastructure and cultural reasons?

There were some European companies. Ericcson before the merger with Sony. And I once had a rather nice phone made by Siemens. I expect it's largely a matter of production costs due to European labor rates. By way of example, Thiessen-Krupp is building a huge steel plant in the United States that will be exporting steel to Europe, so it's not just a matter of avoiding U.S. import duties.

Even the American companies don't do any production worthy of the name on U.S. soil; the bulk of it is done in Asia.

[Drillbit]

That;s the point. Ericsson and Siemens used to make phones in the past. Not anymore. They were early victims of the mobile shakeout.

Note how fast Android comes out with new releases. That's why it is so suited to be partnered with fast followers. Its that kind of partnership that makes a perfect storm.

Android is moving so fast the buzz talk is Ice Cream Sandwich (next OS after Honeycomb) in a new Nexus with quad core. This year. Even photo leaks have come out --- suggesting HTC might get the honor this time.

[LaLongeCarabine]

That;s the point. Ericsson and Siemens used to make phones in the past. Not anymore. They were early victims of the mobile shakeout.

Note how fast Android comes out with new releases. That's why it is so suited to be partnered with fast followers. Its that kind of partnership that makes a perfect storm.

Android is moving so fast the buzz talk is Ice Cream Sandwich (next OS after Honeycomb) in a new Nexus with quad core. This year. Even photo leaks have come out --- suggesting HTC might get the honor this time.

Anybody see this demo of quad core? I used to think it was stupid to have so powerful processor in a phone but looking at the new ASUS phone pad and Atrix. Why not? The idea of all your data following you around is simply too attractive.

NVIDIA's quad-core Kal-El used to demo next-gen mobile graphics [Video] - Droid Forum - Verizon Droid & the Motorola Droid Forum

The point is can Nokia present this type of cutting edge tech?
They make good stuff no doubt, but cutting edge?

[hal]

Doesn't mean they will succeed all the time. Unless its a non tech company.

Nokia has been heralded in Europe as an exception in a tech-electronic world full of American and Asian brand names. For some reason, Europe has not been able to produce an Apple, a Google, a Microsoft, even a Samsung or Sony. Why? Are there structural, infrastructure and cultural reasons?

Siemens. Philips. Schunk. Schneider-Electric. Ericsson.

If by tech, you mean the common, misleading and biased definition of "current digital electronics", yes Europe is lacking a major player, specifically in the smartphone arena. As in today. Or if, by tech, you mean the current status of knowledge evolution and attested application (term that involves the application of science to industrial or commercial objectives, or the scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial solution to a problem), which is the actual definition of technology, that spans WAY far beyond digital electronics, well Europe has always been a major player. There is no technological ground in which Europe lacks a share, from agriculture to orbital facilities, and pretty much everything in between. And the fact itself that it currently lacks a major cellphone saleswinner, by no means implies it can't have one.

In Nokia's history, every time they moved to a new industry, analysts always asked a question like the one posed in the title of this article...

While the recent figures of Nokia can really mean a serious drop in their cashflow, what you point out is historically remarkable. Nokia has played in several industries throughout its history, and it has always had a positive outcome.